Pennsylvania was seen to hold the largest electoral prize of all the swing states in 2024. As such, it was generally believed that the winner of the state was highly likely to win the entire election. According to statistician Nate Silver, the state's winner was estimated to have a 90% chance of winning the presidency.[3] Major news organizations marked it as a tossup in the lead-up to the election.[4]
Trump won Pennsylvania with 50.4% of the vote to Kamala Harris's 48.7%, defeating her by a margin of roughly 1.7% and flipping the state. This was the largest margin of victory for a Republican candidate since 1988, as well as the first time since that election that a Republican won over 50% of the state vote. Trump's victory is seen to have contributed to down-ballot victories for Republicans who won the races for the US Senate, Attorney General, Treasurer and Auditor General. Trump received more than 3.5 million votes, the most cast for any candidate in Pennsylvania history.