Theodore Modis | |
|---|---|
 Modis in 2020 | |
| Born | August 11, 1943 |
| Nationality | Greek, Swiss |
| Alma mater | Anatolia College Columbia University |
| Known for | Expertise in S-Curve Criticism of the Technological Singularity |
| Scientific career | |
| Fields | Physics, forecasting, business consulting |
| Institutions | CERN University of Geneva Digital Equipment Corporation Growth Dynamics |
| Academic advisors | Jack Steinberger |
Theodore Modis (born August 11, 1943) is a strategic business analyst, futurist, physicist, and international consultant. He specializes in applying fundamental scientific concepts to predicting social phenomena. In particular, he uses the law of natural growth in competition as expressed by the logistic function or S-curve to forecast markets, product sales, primary-energy substitutions, the diffusion of technologies, and generally any process that grows in competition.[1][2][3][4][5] He is a vehement critic of the concept of the Technological Singularity.[6][7][8][9][10] He has suggested a simple mathematical relationship between Entropy and Complexity as the latter being the time derivative of the former.[11]
He currently lives in Lugano, Switzerland.
- ^ Modis, Theodore (2013). "Long-Term GDP Forecasts and the Prospects for Growth" (PDF). Technological Forecasting & Social Change. 80 (8): 1557. doi:10.1016/j.techfore.2013.02.010. S2CID 55535180.
- ^ Modis, Theodore (1994). "Life Cycles - Forecasting the Rise and Fall of Almost Anything" (PDF). The Futurist. 28 (5): 20.
- ^ Modis, Theodore (July 1, 2013). Natural Laws in the Service of the Decision Maker: How to Use Science-Based Methodologies to See more Clearly further into the Future (1 ed.). Lugano, Switzerland: Growth Dynamics. p. 246. ISBN 978-2970021681.
- ^ Modis, Theodore (2007). “Strengths and Weaknesses of S-Curves”. Technological Forecasting & Social Change. 74, (6): 866-872.
- ^ Debecker, Alain, and Modis, Theodore (1994). “Determination of the Uncertainties in S-curve Logistic Fits”. Technological Forecasting & Social Change. 46 (2): 153-173.
- ^ Modis, Theodore (2020). “Forecasting the Growth of Complexity and Change—An Update”. Published in Korotayev, Andrey; LePoire, David (Eds.) (January 3, 2020). The 21st Century Singularity and Global Futures (1 ed.). Springer. p. 620. ISBN 978-3-030-33730-8. pp 101-104
- ^ Modis, Theodore (2012). “Why the Singularity Cannot Happen”. Published in Eden, Amnon H. et al (Eds.) (2012). Singularity Hypothesis (PDF). New York: Springer. p. 311. ISBN 978-3-642-32560-1. pp 311-339.
- ^ Modis, Theodore (2006). “The Singularity Myth”. Technological Forecasting & Social Change. 73 (2): 104-112.
- ^ Modis, Theodore (May–June 2003). “The Limits of Complexity and Change”. The Futurist. 37 (3): 26-32.
- ^ Modis, Theodore (2002). “Forecasting the Growth of Complexity and Change”. Technological Forecasting & Social Change. 69 (4): 377-404.
- ^ Modis, Theodore (2022). "Links between entropy, complexity, and the technological singularity". Technological Forecasting and Social Change. Volume 176, 2022-3, p. 121457. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2021.121457.