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Withdrawal of the United Kingdom from the European Union Glossary of terms |
The economic effects of Brexit were a major area of debate[1] during and after the referendum on UK membership of the European Union. The majority of economists believe that Brexit has harmed the UK's economy and reduced its real per capita income in the long term, and the referendum itself damaged the economy.[2][3][4][5][6] It is likely to produce a large decline in immigration from countries in the European Economic Area (EEA) to the UK,[7] and poses challenges for British higher education and academic research.[8]
- ^ Santagiustina, Carlo Romano Marcello Alessandro; Warglien, Massimo (30 June 2022). "The architecture of partisan debates: The online controversy on the no-deal Brexit". PLOS ONE. 17 (6): e0270236. Bibcode:2022PLoSO..1770236S. doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0270236. ISSN 1932-6203. PMC 9246126. PMID 35771839.
- ^ Baldwin, Richard (31 July 2016). "Brexit Beckons: Thinking ahead by leading economists". VoxEU. Centre for Economic Policy Research. Archived from the original on 25 November 2017. Retrieved 22 November 2017.
On 23 June 2016, 52% of British voters decided that being the first country to leave the EU was a price worth paying for 'taking back control', despite advice from economists clearly showing that Brexit would make the UK 'permanently poorer' (HM Treasury 2016). The extent of agreement among economists on the costs of Brexit was extraordinary: forecast after forecast supported similar conclusions (which have so far proved accurate in the aftermath of the Brexit vote).
- ^ Giles, Chris; Tetlow, Gemma (7 January 2017). "Most economists still pessimistic about effects of Brexit". Financial Times. Archived from the original on 22 July 2019. Retrieved 22 November 2017.
- ^ Giles, Chris (16 April 2017). "Brexit will damage UK standards of living, say economists". Financial Times. Archived from the original on 22 July 2019. Retrieved 22 November 2017.
Unlike the short-term effects of Brexit, which have been better than most had predicted, most economists say the ultimate impact of leaving the EU still appears likely to be more negative than positive. But the one thing almost all agree upon is that no one will know how big the effects are for some time.
- ^ "Brexit to Hit Jobs, Wealth and Output for Years to Come, Economists Say". Bloomberg L.P. 22 February 2017. Archived from the original on 22 July 2019. Retrieved 22 November 2017.
The U.K. economy may be paying for Brexit for a long time to come ... It won't mean Armageddon, but the broad consensus of economists—whose predictions about the initial fallout were largely too pessimistic—is for a prolonged effect that will ultimately diminish output, jobs and wealth to some degree.
- ^ Johnson, Paul; Mitchell, Ian (1 March 2017). "The Brexit vote, economics, and economic policy". Oxford Review of Economic Policy. 33 (suppl_1): S12 – S21. doi:10.1093/oxrep/grx017. ISSN 0266-903X.
- ^ Forte, Giuseppe; Portes, Jonathan (1 May 2017). Macroeconomic Determinants of International Migration to the UK (Report). Rochester, NY. SSRN 2979949.
- ^ Mayhew, Ken (1 March 2017). "UK higher education and Brexit". Oxford Review of Economic Policy. 33 (suppl_1): S155 – S161. doi:10.1093/oxrep/grx012. ISSN 0266-903X.